The controversial “lottery” selection process for schools trialled in Brighton and Hove this year could be introduced nationwide in the coming years. There is little doubt that the system will have a massive effect on the educational system but it may have an unforeseen knock-on effect on the property market.
The new system of school selection is designed to increase equality in schools. The idea is that pupils will be assigned to schools at random within their area rather than the school places being awarded to the pupils that are closest to the particular school in question.
The hope is that schools will have a wider selection of pupils from a range of backgrounds and that they will be on a more even footing educationally. In order to get a child a place in a good school parents would, in the past, buy a property within the catchment area of said school. Obviously the ability to buy in an area is a privilege afforded to only a few.
Generally it is the middle classes that are making this move to make sure that their children can get into the best school in the area because they have the means to do so. As the area becomes more in demand the prices escalate and the area becomes even more exclusive. The high demand on the school allows it to start handpicking children, further exacerbating the problem.
A survey by Abbey carried out last year showed that school catchment area was the third biggest reason for why people moved house. With 2.6 million households saying it was why they moved in the last five years. So important is the school their child attends that it has been known for parents to rent a small flat within the area or pretend the child lives at another address, such as Grandma’s house.
This new lottery system will not do away with catchment areas completely. If all catchment areas were abolished within a city then children could feasibly spend most of their educational career in transit. What it does mean is that catchment areas will expand. No longer will getting into a small select area near the school guarantee a place, catchment areas for some oversubscribed city schools have been known to be as small as a mile.
These catchment areas have effectively in the past created micro-inelastic markets, little pockets where property prices are inflated compared to outlying areas. An expansion in these areas should lead to a reduction in the price of these properties as owning one will no longer guarantee entry into the school.
On the other hand outlying areas could experience a rise in price as they now have a ticket in the hat for the local high performing school. So what should be seen on the property price front is a levelling out across the board. It is also possible that families may choose to move away from the school, yet remain in the new larger catchment so as to save money after perhaps stretching their budget originally.
If the governments and local councils plan works, this effect should only be temporary. As the schools mix up their intake sink schools and high flying ones should level out. In much the way the property prices in the area will eventually settle on a level so too will the educational levels of the schools.
Well, this is the theory anyway; the real world throws up many surprises. Perhaps the mass middle class conversion to Catholicism will find people moving closer to the church instead.
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